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摩根資管許長泰:美伊談判短期波動大 對停火審慎樂觀
摩根資產管理亞太區首席市場策略師許長泰表示,美國與伊朗最新宣布達成為期兩周的停火,雙方願意重返談判桌是好的第一步,但相信談判仍然脆弱。由於短期內談判波動較大,加上以色列的角色及取態未見明朗,他對戰事停火審慎樂觀。許長泰指,美國聯儲局早前表明不會因油價的短暫波動而加息,但戰事令通脹回落速度放緩,繼續預期美國將在年底前減息一次。他相信,如果戰事在第二季停火,預計...
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摩根資管許長泰:美伊談判短期波動大 對停火審慎樂觀
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摩根資產管理亞太區首席市場策略師許長泰表示,美國與伊朗最新宣布達成為期兩周的停火,雙方願意重返談判桌是好的第一步,但相信談判仍然脆弱。由於短期內談判波動較大,加上以色列的角色及取態未見明朗,他對戰事停火審慎樂觀。

許長泰指,美國聯儲局早前表明不會因油價的短暫波動而加息,但戰事令通脹回落速度放緩,繼續預期美國將在年底前減息一次。他相信,如果戰事在第二季停火,預計油價可回落到每桶80美元水平,但難以進一步重回每桶60美元水平。不過,雙方一旦談判破裂,伊朗加強軍事行動或進一步損毀附近能源設備,最壞情況下料油價將升至每桶120美元。

從投資角度來看,他預計恒指未來數周走勢仍較為反覆,假設美伊戰事穩定,料恒指可回升至27,000點。另外,美國AI股經過市場調整後,吸引力有所回升。美股投資空間重新出現,他認為未來兩至三個月可逐步增加投資,建議可持有美國科技企業,亦可涉及金融、工業、國防相關板塊等。

至於黃金,許長泰指出,由於黃金可轉換為現金,當投資者需要流動資金時便會沽出黃金。他強調長遠繼續看好黃金走勢,建議可購入黃金作投資用途,但認為黃金已不是最好的避險工具。(sl/da)

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